{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071602",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-july-31-polymarket-1-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T04:42:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz normalization by July 31 nears zero pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 1%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by July 31: Polymarket 1%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by July 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21d7b32eb529ea455eddba3cf29bfa097112202cbdf5bf21",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?",
    "current_price": 0.012,
    "volume_24h_usd": 211521.35014099974,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 1% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, essentially fully rejecting near-term resolution.",
    "Active US strikes on northern Iran and Iranian retaliation against US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan are consistent with this near-zero pricing.",
    "The December 31 Polymarket contract on the same question sits at 57%, revealing sharp term-structure doubt concentrated in the next six weeks.",
    "The 56-percentage-point gap between the July and December contracts indicates markets price significant but not certain longer-run de-escalation."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "geo.tv",
          "source_url": "https://www.geo.tv/latest/673279-us-launches-multiple-strikes-on-iran-tehran-targets-american-bases-in-region",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US launched multiple strikes on Iran targeting missile sites, air defenses and command centers while Iran retaliated against US bases in the region, intensifying the naval blockade.",
      "publisher": "geo.tv",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T04:42:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.geo.tv/latest/673279-us-launches-multiple-strikes-on-iran-tehran-targets-american-bases-in-region"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the July 31 contract at 1% vs December 31 at 57% is the cleanest term-structure read available on Hormuz reopening probability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "geo.tv: US launches multiple strikes on Iran, Tehran targets American bases in",
      "url": "https://www.geo.tv/latest/673279-us-launches-multiple-strikes-on-iran-tehran-targets-american-bases-in-region",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T04:42:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-july-31-polymarket-1-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-july-31-polymarket-1-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}