{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062102",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz June reopening consensus wavers near slim odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 18%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by June 30: Polymarket 18%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2192769.440225002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices only 18% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June, resolving via portwatch.imf.org shipping data.",
    "Iran's active Hormuz closure threats heading into the talks are consistent with the low near-term probability, markets do not expect a shipping breakthrough this month.",
    "The December 31 companion Polymarket contract prices at 78%, showing the market sees eventual normalization as likely but not in the current negotiating window.",
    "The June 30 contract for Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping prices at 31%, higher than the traffic normalization contract, suggesting markets see an agreement as possible but implementation as slower."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran threatened renewed Hormuz closure as US and Iranian delegations convened in Switzerland for high-stakes nuclear and shipping talks.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 18% June versus 78% December spread on Hormuz normalization frames the talks as a medium-term catalyst, not an immediate resolution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Vance arrives in Switzerland for Iran peace talks with Hormuz in spotl",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-disputes-iranian-claims-about-closing-strait-of-hormuz-as-negotiators-head-to-switzerland",
      "published_at": "2026-06-21T00:22:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}