{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062402",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T14:27:55.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz normalcy by June 30 holds slim odds despite diplomacy",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 18%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by June 30: Polymarket 18%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2192769.440225002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 at just 18%, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term resolution.",
    "Rubio's firm rejection of Iranian tolls and ongoing UAE anxiety show the market's low probability is consistent with real diplomatic friction.",
    "The year-end Polymarket contract on Hormuz normalcy sits at 78%, implying the market expects eventual resolution but not within days.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; physical shipping flow, not a diplomatic statement, determines settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caolán Magee",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/24/rubio-says-iran-cannot-charge-tolls-in-hormuz-what-we-know",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed Iranian toll demands on the Strait of Hormuz as semantics, while the UAE raised concerns and active diplomacy continued.",
      "publisher": "Caolán Magee",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T14:27:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/24/rubio-says-iran-cannot-charge-tolls-in-hormuz-what-we-know"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices only an 18% chance of June 30 normalcy, while the December contract at 78% reveals the market's longer-horizon optimism."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caolán Magee: Rubio says Iran cannot charge tolls in Hormuz: What we know | US-Israe",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/24/rubio-says-iran-cannot-charge-tolls-in-hormuz-what-we-know",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T14:27:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-june-30-polymarket-18-2026-06-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}