{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061504",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-transit-calls-implied-20-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-15T09:16:44.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz transit calls consensus anchors in the 20 to 25 range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Hormuz transit calls implied 20-25: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26jun14",
  "event_question": "Strait of Hormuz transit calls (count)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUN14-T25",
    "question_raw": "Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2024.23,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-16T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Hormuz transit calls with 77% above 20 but only 48% above 25, implying a market consensus range of 20 to 25 calls.",
    "The Iran deal and announced June 19 reopening support a recovery in transits, but the ladder's sharp drop above 25 signals limited confidence in a full pre-war traffic restoration.",
    "The year-end Hormuz normalization Polymarket contract at 78% is broadly consistent with this range, both pricing partial rather than full recovery.",
    "Resolution depends on measured transit data through the Strait; the contract source and counting methodology determine whether partial reopening counts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "punchbowl.news",
          "source_url": "https://punchbowl.news/article/defense/new-iran-deal/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Congress is reviewing the new Iran deal as Trump departed for the G7, with Hormuz reopening tied to deal ratification.",
      "publisher": "punchbowl.news",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T09:16:44.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://punchbowl.news/article/defense/new-iran-deal/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution anchors expected Hormuz transits in the 20-25 range, pricing a meaningful but incomplete recovery consistent with cautious diplomatic optimism."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "punchbowl.news: Congress and the new Iran deal",
      "url": "https://punchbowl.news/article/defense/new-iran-deal/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T09:16:44.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-transit-calls-implied-20-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-transit-calls-implied-20-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}