{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071006",
  "record_slug": "housing-investment-restriction-law-kalshi-100-2026-07-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T15:53:35.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Institutional housing investment bill nears full resolution pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 100%",
  "headline": "Housing investment restriction law: Kalshi 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HH1QMWSWC1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhfhousing-27",
  "event_question": "Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2027)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHFHOUSING-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?",
    "current_price": 0.996,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9462.91,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment becoming law is priced at 100%, with trading volume up 64x day over day.",
    "The bill's automatic enactment via the ten-day pocket-unsigned rule is now confirmed, making this a resolved or near-resolved event; the 100% price reflects that certainty.",
    "The volume surge of 64x suggests traders rushed to close or settle positions following the confirmed enactment news, not to open new directional bets.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress legislative record; the resolution source will confirm enactment date, with no veto or pocket-veto ambiguity remaining."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Chantelle Lee",
          "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/10/housing-bill-trump/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The bipartisan housing bill restricting institutional single-family home investment became law automatically after Trump refused to sign it in protest over the absence of a GOP voter ID provision.",
      "publisher": "Chantelle Lee",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T15:53:35.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/10/housing-bill-trump/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 100% with 64x volume surge indicates the market has fully absorbed the enactment confirmation; new positions at this level carry no remaining directional edge."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Chantelle Lee: The Bipartisan Housing Bill Is Set to Become Law, Despite Trump’s Refu",
      "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/10/housing-bill-trump/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T15:53:35.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/housing-investment-restriction-law-kalshi-100-2026-07-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/housing-investment-restriction-law-kalshi-100-2026-07-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}