{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081204",
  "record_slug": "iowa-gov-senate-same-party-sweep-kalshi-35-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iowa governor-senate same-party combo stays below 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 35%",
  "headline": "Iowa Gov-Senate same-party sweep: Kalshi 35%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-K724YL44P6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiasengovcombo-26nov",
  "event_question": "Iowa Governor-Senate combo",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXIASENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM",
    "question_raw": "Will Iowa Governor winner be Democratic party and Iowa Senate winner be Democratic party?",
    "current_price": 0.35,
    "volume_24h_usd": 94.91,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 35% on Iowa electing a governor and senator from the same party, reflecting a competitive state where split outcomes remain the base case.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 695x day over day, a sharp signal that the primary results are pulling fresh attention to Iowa's general-election setup.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-5BB4SFW2V1 prices Michigan's same-party sweep at 53%, showing the market sees Michigan as more likely to unify than Iowa.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as named resolution source; actual resolution will depend on official certified election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/democrats-wisconsin-primary-hong-crowley-flanagan-0618c650d24c17a2a8f2d3273d813808",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democratic primary voters are signaling a preference for change over ideology across a series of closely watched 2026 midterm contests.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/democrats-wisconsin-primary-hong-crowley-flanagan-0618c650d24c17a2a8f2d3273d813808"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's Iowa contract saw the largest single-day volume surge in this batch at 695x, directly tied to primary-night results reshaping general-election expectations."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Democratic voters are making clear they just want change | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/democrats-wisconsin-primary-hong-crowley-flanagan-0618c650d24c17a2a8f2d3273d813808",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iowa-gov-senate-same-party-sweep-kalshi-35-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iowa-gov-senate-same-party-sweep-kalshi-35-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}