{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081506",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-08-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by Dec 31: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 44227.121787,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at just 10%, with trading volume up 10,953% day over day.",
    "The extraordinary volume surge, over 110 times normal, signals the expired 60-day deadline and ongoing military posture are driving intense fresh attention to this contract.",
    "Trump's threat to bomb US ally Oman and Iran's vow to escalate over Hormuz are directionally consistent with the low 10% probability.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) sits at only 2%, confirming prediction markets see near-zero normalization near-term."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US pulled its last aircraft carrier from Asia to focus on Iran and the Western Hemisphere as the 60-day Versailles ceasefire deadline expired without a broader deal.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the volume explosion on the deadline expiry date makes this the most actively repriced geopolitical contract in this batch."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump shifts aircraft carrier and US focus away from Asia | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-08-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-08-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}