{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100405",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-13-2026-10-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 13%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by Dec 31: Polymarket 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 64.02,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 13% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, a long-shot read despite active US military pressure.",
    "Camp David talks and a military buildup have not shifted the market toward a near-term diplomatic breakthrough; the price is consistent with stalled diplomacy as described.",
    "The confirmed US strikes on Iranian targets reported in Story 28 add coercive pressure, but markets are not pricing a rapid capitulation on the nuclear file.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires a formal Iranian commitment to end enrichment, a specific and verifiable standard that constrains the contract's upside."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Stephen N R",
          "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/military-buildup-secret-camp-david-talks-what-s-trump-up-to-1.500697507",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Secret Camp David talks and a US troop surge raise focus on Trump's next move against Iran, even as diplomacy remains stalled.",
      "publisher": "Stephen N R",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/military-buildup-secret-camp-david-talks-what-s-trump-up-to-1.500697507"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 13% reflects the market's assessment that military escalation and diplomatic back-channels have not yet converged on a deal; the Pahlavi recognition contract at 4% (Story 22) reinforces the broader no-resolution baseline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Stephen N R: Trump's Secret Camp David Talks and Military Buildup: What's Next for",
      "url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/military-buildup-secret-camp-david-talks-what-s-trump-up-to-1.500697507",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-13-2026-10-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-13-2026-10-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}