{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072604",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-22-2026-07-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran uranium enrichment end by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 22%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by Dec 31: Polymarket 22%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19167.097273,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 22% odds on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.",
    "The airstrike pause and active diplomacy are positive signals, but the market prices the deal as unlikely, skepticism outweighs the ceasefire narrative.",
    "The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 58% on Polymarket, a notably higher probability, suggesting markets see shipping normalization as more achievable than a full nuclear deal.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran sits at only 3%, consistent with talks being conducted at lower diplomatic levels."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US airstrikes on Iran paused after nearly two weeks, with diplomatic talks pressing forward to avert a return to all-out war.",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the year-end deadline leaves roughly five months for a deal to materialize."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters: Iran war spreads to Red Sea and Caspian, Gulf quiet as US forgoes stri",
      "url": "https://quews.news/iran-war-spreads-to/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-22-2026-07-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-22-2026-07-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}