{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062405",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T12:32:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran uranium enrichment end by December holds below one-in-three",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 29%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by Dec 31: Polymarket 29%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.29,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2215.24,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 29% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, resolving via uma_oracle.",
    "IAEA inspection visits represent a procedural step, and the market is not treating this as a near-certain path to full enrichment cessation.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Iran ending enrichment by June 30 sits at only 2%, confirming the market sees any deal as a second-half-2026 possibility at best.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle on public agreement announcement; the 27-percentage-point gap between June 30 (2%) and December 31 (29%) captures the market's view that talks will be slow."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bbc.co.uk",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpd395zv81vo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The IAEA chief confirmed inspectors will visit Iranian nuclear sites under a preliminary peace agreement between Iran and the US.",
      "publisher": "bbc.co.uk",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T12:32:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpd395zv81vo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contracts on Iranian enrichment cessation at both June 30 (2%) and December 31 (29%); the spread reveals the market treats IAEA inspection news as a starting point, not a conclusion."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bbc.co.uk: UN nuclear chief says inspectors will visit Iran sites as part of war",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpd395zv81vo",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T12:32:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}