{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110408",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-8-2026-11-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T05:44:55.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by Dec 31: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.081,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3009.794193,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at 8%, a low-probability outcome.",
    "Iran's negotiator publicly demanded US action as a precondition; the market's 8% pricing reflects ongoing talks but deep skepticism about a 2026 deal.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 11%, a similarly dim near-term outlook.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; both enrichment and Hormuz contracts price a consistent picture of diplomatic stalemate through year-end."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc4.com/news/international-news/ap-international/ap-irans-chief-negotiator-says-the-us-must-act-to-prevent-renewed-war-and-other-mideast-news/amp/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's chief nuclear negotiator warned the US must act to prevent renewed conflict, as Tehran and Washington exchanged conditions for a potential settlement.",
      "publisher": "The Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T05:44:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc4.com/news/international-news/ap-international/ap-irans-chief-negotiator-says-the-us-must-act-to-prevent-renewed-war-and-other-mideast-news/amp/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket UMA oracle resolution; the 8% price on enrichment and 11% on Hormuz normalization (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) are mutually consistent and reinforce the market's skeptical stance."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Associated Press: Iran’s chief negotiator says the US must act to prevent renewed war, a",
      "url": "https://www.abc4.com/news/international-news/ap-international/ap-irans-chief-negotiator-says-the-us-must-act-to-prevent-renewed-war-and-other-mideast-news/amp/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T05:44:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-8-2026-11-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-8-2026-11-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}