{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062303",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-july-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran uranium enrichment halt by July 31 stays well below even odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 29%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by July 31: Polymarket 29%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8SWDJJDJM0",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x151b13b0d75a282ea864a2835963c0164c03e8fa3064c4d44026e3af5f2ff8d4",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?",
    "current_price": 0.29,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6990.058033,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by July 31 at only 29%.",
    "Iran's explicit denial of enrichment concessions is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing well below 50%.",
    "The June 30 enrichment-halt contract sits at 24%, nearly identical to July 31, suggesting the market sees little incremental probability of a deal in that extra month.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; what counts as 'agreeing to end enrichment' versus a pause or cap is a live definitional risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mia Gonzalez",
          "source_url": "https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US waived Iran sanctions after Switzerland talks, but Iran publicly denied it had begun dismantling its nuclear program.",
      "publisher": "Mia Gonzalez",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 29% on enrichment halt by July 31 reflects the market's reading that sanctions relief does not automatically translate to Iranian nuclear concessions."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mia Gonzalez: US waives Iran sanctions, Trump says he will 'do what I have to' if Te",
      "url": "https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-july-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-july-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}