{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061205",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-june-30-polymarket-21-2026-06-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T10:54:39.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran uranium enrichment halt by June 30 breaks away at 21 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 21%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by June 30: Polymarket 21%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9d3f02264a94bafc676afd7add8b11442e6ec72dabaa69cefef835f0672275c7",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 32831.130789,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 21% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, despite Iran releasing deal-framework details.",
    "The 60-day nuclear talks structure disclosed by Iran implies enrichment decisions are deferred beyond June 30, directly consistent with the low 21% probability.",
    "The broader US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 contract sits at 28%, the gap between 28% and 21% isolates the specific enrichment-halt condition as the harder ask.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; Iran must formally agree to cease all uranium enrichment, not merely enter talks, to settle YES by June 30."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "firstpost.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-iran-deal-14-point-mou-full-details-west-asia-war-trump-peace-talks-14021810.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran publicly released details of a proposed deal with Trump including a full ceasefire, 60-day nuclear talks, and a sanctions waiver, but enrichment halt terms remain contested.",
      "publisher": "firstpost.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T10:54:39.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-iran-deal-14-point-mou-full-details-west-asia-war-trump-peace-talks-14021810.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 21% is consistent with the deal's own reported structure, which explicitly defers enrichment decisions into a 60-day negotiation window."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "firstpost.com: Iran releases details of deal with Trump: Full ceasefire, 60-day nucle",
      "url": "https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-iran-deal-14-point-mou-full-details-west-asia-war-trump-peace-talks-14021810.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T10:54:39.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-june-30-polymarket-21-2026-06-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-june-30-polymarket-21-2026-06-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}