{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062405",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-enrichment-by-june-30-polymarket-24-2026-06-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran ends uranium enrichment by June 30 pricing holds deep discount",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 24%",
  "headline": "Iran ends enrichment by June 30: Polymarket 24%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9d3f02264a94bafc676afd7add8b11442e6ec72dabaa69cefef835f0672275c7",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.24,
    "volume_24h_usd": 173700.74918100028,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30 at just 24%, a steep discount to the broader deal probability.",
    "Trump's ultimatum on inspections suggests enrichment cessation is a harder ask than a general deal framework, and the market reflects that gap.",
    "The broader US-Iran deal by June 30 contract (CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2) sits at 51%, making enrichment-end roughly half as likely as any deal.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a formal public commitment to halt enrichment, not just inspection access, is required for settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-says-he-would-cancel-meetings-with-iran-if-they-denies-iaea-nuclear-inspections/articleshow/131952535.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump threatened to cancel meetings with Iran if Tehran denies IAEA nuclear inspections, as both sides dispute whether Iran has already agreed.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-says-he-would-cancel-meetings-with-iran-if-they-denies-iaea-nuclear-inspections/articleshow/131952535.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 27-point spread between Polymarket's any-deal (51%) and enrichment-end (24%) contracts reveals the market sees a partial or framework deal as far more likely than full enrichment cessation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: Trump says he would 'cancel meetings' with Iran if they deny IAEA nucl",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-says-he-would-cancel-meetings-with-iran-if-they-denies-iaea-nuclear-inspections/articleshow/131952535.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-june-30-polymarket-24-2026-06-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-june-30-polymarket-24-2026-06-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}