{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081105",
  "record_slug": "iran-ends-uranium-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-14-2026-08-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran ends uranium enrichment by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 14%",
  "headline": "Iran ends uranium enrichment by Dec 31: Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df",
    "question_raw": " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1579.976664,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 14% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, a long-shot read consistent with talks collapsing.",
    "The return to sanctions rather than negotiation is fully consistent with this low probability, the market is not pricing a diplomatic breakthrough.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 prices 46% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end, suggesting the market sees a slightly better chance of commercial normalization than nuclear resolution.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the question is binary on Iran's formal agreement, not on partial or informal steps."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-sanctions-d96e3bf53eb4050097e6cab128db82cb",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump pivoted back to sanctions after nuclear talks with Iran collapsed, making a near-term diplomatic resolution appear increasingly remote.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-sanctions-d96e3bf53eb4050097e6cab128db82cb"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 14%; the gap between 46% Hormuz normalization odds and 14% enrichment-deal odds implies the market sees a possible Hormuz resolution path that does not require a nuclear agreement."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: After talks with Iran fizzle, Trump turns back to sanctions | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-sanctions-d96e3bf53eb4050097e6cab128db82cb",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-uranium-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-14-2026-08-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-uranium-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-14-2026-08-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}