{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062505",
  "record_slug": "iran-hormuz-unrestricted-shipping-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T20:16:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 31%",
  "headline": "Iran Hormuz unrestricted shipping by June 30: Polymarket 31%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1723b7ee4118dee6ae6be8802cb7b6e239c37d199997b20a8191e32553a5bd68",
    "question_raw": "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49749.449696000025,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 31% on Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30, a below-even probability with four days remaining in the window.",
    "The drone strike on a commercial vessel is directly at odds with the near-term resolution scenario the 31% price implies.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 prices at 78%, showing the market sees eventual normalization but not before month-end.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the July 31 traffic-return contract at 47% and the December contract at 78% reveal a market pricing a multi-month delay, not a near-term fix."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strikes-commercial-ship-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-deal-oil/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz with a drone, pausing UN evacuation efforts.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T20:16:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strikes-commercial-ship-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-deal-oil/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's three-horizon Hormuz term structure (18% June, 47% July, 78% December) shows the market treating the drone strike as a near-term resolution blocker."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Iran strikes commercial ship in Strait of Hormuz in challenge to U.S.-",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-strikes-commercial-ship-strait-of-hormuz-us-iran-deal-oil/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T20:16:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-hormuz-unrestricted-shipping-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-hormuz-unrestricted-shipping-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}