{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260726VS02",
  "record_slug": "iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-26035",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T09:56:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Iran leadership-change odds stay low through August",
  "telemetry": "8% · $26K 24h",
  "headline": "Iran leadership change: 8% on $26K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "event_question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x43e12647a58ee0b20d2539d23764b0d561ea7be322acb8823f7bb126e67c115e",
    "question_raw": "Iran leadership change by August 31?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26035.178882,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 47140.168178999986,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an Iran leadership change by Aug 31 at 8%, traders broadly discount the scenario.",
    "55% of all-time volume cleared in 24h, implying a sharp geopolitical catalyst drove renewed attention.",
    "Escalating Iran-related headlines, sanctions, nuclear talks, or internal unrest, are the likely trigger.",
    "Hard deadline of Aug 31 keeps the contract a near-term binary; resolution is weeks away."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 26035.178882
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:56:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-26035/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-26035.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}