{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100306",
  "record_slug": "iran-nuclear-weapon-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran nuclear weapon before 2027 holds near long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Iran nuclear weapon before 2027: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RV9Z73GLB0",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-nuke-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494792fd334ca181b0cf70355f23dca4098d558280b554c81",
    "question_raw": "Iran Nuke before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.039,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3098.155,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 4% on Iran developing a nuclear weapon before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Trump's stated goal of nuclear prevention and the Camp David national security meeting (Story 11) are consistent with the market's view that weaponization remains unlikely near-term.",
    "The US-Iran framework agreement story (Story 27) and Iran's 'major round of fighting' posture (Story 19) point in opposite directions; the 4% pricing reflects deep uncertainty without resolution.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at 4%, suggesting the market prices both war escalation and diplomatic breakthrough as low-probability tail events."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Vishwam Sankaran",
          "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strikes-oil-diesel-b3060718.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump cited preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon as a rationale for the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with Iran preparing for a major round of fighting as diplomatic efforts falter.",
      "publisher": "Vishwam Sankaran",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strikes-oil-diesel-b3060718.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 4% resolves via UMA oracle; conflicting signals from ceasefire talks and Iranian military posturing have not shifted the pricing from long-shot territory."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Vishwam Sankaran: Iran-US war latest: Trump gives new reason for starting conflict after",
      "url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strikes-oil-diesel-b3060718.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-nuclear-weapon-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-nuclear-weapon-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}