{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100207",
  "record_slug": "iran-nuclear-weapon-by-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran nuclear weapon before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Iran nuclear weapon by 2027: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RV9Z73GLB0",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-nuke-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494792fd334ca181b0cf70355f23dca4098d558280b554c81",
    "question_raw": "Iran Nuke before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.038,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3462.204447,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Iran developing a nuclear weapon before 2027 prices at 4%, pricing the scenario as a remote tail risk despite active military and diplomatic tensions.",
    "Israeli defense officials flag narrowing Iranian options under sanctions pressure, but the Polymarket contract at 4% suggests the market does not interpret this as a credible near-term nuclear breakout.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on the U.S. and Iran reaching a final nuclear deal by 2026 has no live price, leaving the diplomatic resolution pathway unquantified.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; nuclear weapon development by Iran would need independent verification before year-end 2026, a very high evidentiary bar in the available timeline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AMIR BOHBOT",
          "source_url": "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-910402",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A senior Israeli defense official said Iran's options have narrowed amid U.S. sanctions, while Israel prepares for the possibility of an escalatory Iranian move.",
      "publisher": "AMIR BOHBOT",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-910402"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 4% on Iranian nuclear weapons before 2027 is consistent with elevated geopolitical tension but stops well short of pricing a credible near-term breakout scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AMIR BOHBOT: Iran weighs options as US pressure, nuclear impasse deepen | The Jerus",
      "url": "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-910402",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-nuclear-weapon-by-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-nuclear-weapon-by-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}