{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060305",
  "record_slug": "iran-oman-hormuz-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-6-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15 priced near-impossible",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6%",
  "headline": "Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15: Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-974T1626Q2",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15",
  "event_question": "Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by June 15?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x27a7a60a3605b0cc0f41f0f243e6be5f2a6144b0adf59fad803fbc1ca6eeb928",
    "question_raw": "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 428.79064000000005,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 6% on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15.",
    "Escalating strikes near Hormuz are consistent with the very low near-term deal probability on Polymarket.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices 13% on unrestricted Iran shipping through Hormuz by June 30, confirming the market sees no quick resolution.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle based on confirmed public agreement between Iran and Oman by June 15."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thenews.pk",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenews.pk/print/1418823-me-conflict-surges-as-iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran struck Kuwait and the US conducted strikes near the Strait of Hormuz as Middle East conflict intensified.",
      "publisher": "thenews.pk",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenews.pk/print/1418823-me-conflict-surges-as-iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the June 15 deadline makes this an extremely short-dated binary."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thenews.pk: ME conflict surges as Iran hits Kuwait, US strikes near Hormuz",
      "url": "https://www.thenews.pk/print/1418823-me-conflict-surges-as-iran-hits-kuwait-us-strikes-near-hormuz",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T19:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-oman-hormuz-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-6-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-oman-hormuz-deal-by-june-15-polymarket-6-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}