{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062203",
  "record_slug": "iran-unrestricted-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz unrestricted shipping by June 30 pricing fractures",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 31%",
  "headline": "Iran unrestricted Hormuz by June 30: Polymarket 31%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1723b7ee4118dee6ae6be8802cb7b6e239c37d199997b20a8191e32553a5bd68",
    "question_raw": "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 49749.449696000025,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iran formally agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 at 31%, well below even odds with 8 days left.",
    "Progress in Switzerland is real but the headline roadmap targets 60 days, not 8, making the June 30 bar difficult to clear.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract asking only whether any ships transit by June 30 sits at 28%, nearly identical, suggesting markets see partial reopening as nearly as unlikely as a full agreement.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; the requirement is a formal Iranian agreement on unrestricted passage, not merely resumed negotiations or transit of a single vessel."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US-Iran talks continue in Switzerland with encouraging progress reported, but Trump reiterated threats to take over the Strait while Iran has not yet formally agreed to reopen it.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 31% is consistent with the parallel any-transit contract at 28%, indicating the market is pricing little daylight between a partial and a full agreement by month-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: US-Iran talks continue amid Hormuz closure and Trump threats | The Str",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-talks-go-into-day-2-after-trump-threats-hormuz-closure",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T00:20:37.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-unrestricted-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-unrestricted-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-31-2026-06-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}