{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062403",
  "record_slug": "iran-war-powers-bill-enacted-by-june-30-polymarket-10-2026-06-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T03:50:50.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iran war powers resolution passage odds anchored near zero",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Iran war powers bill enacted by June 30: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KF5S4BY541",
  "target_event_slug": "congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Congress pass an Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xcb3c2e94aefd13bb09a72fdf74d44fa7b2ebe437b863e0621831c020bfd4ed4d",
    "question_raw": "Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.099,
    "volume_24h_usd": 583.491014,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices congressional passage of an Iran war powers resolution by June 30 at only 10%, despite the Senate vote succeeding.",
    "The market distinguishes a congressional vote from enacted law, Trump's veto threat is the dominant risk the price reflects.",
    "The Senate's rare rebuke of a sitting president is politically significant but the market treats veto override as highly unlikely before month-end.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle; a presidential signature or veto-proof override would be required for a YES resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Patricia Zengerle, Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.navytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/24/us-senate-joins-house-in-voting-to-halt-iran-war/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US Senate joined the House in voting to direct President Trump to halt military action against Iran, but the resolution still faces a presidential veto threat.",
      "publisher": "Patricia Zengerle, Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T03:50:50.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.navytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/24/us-senate-joins-house-in-voting-to-halt-iran-war/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 10% treats the Senate vote as a political signal, not a path to enacted law, given the veto threat."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Patricia Zengerle, Reuters: US Senate joins House in voting to halt Iran war",
      "url": "https://www.navytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/24/us-senate-joins-house-in-voting-to-halt-iran-war/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T03:50:50.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-war-powers-bill-enacted-by-june-30-polymarket-10-2026-06-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-war-powers-bill-enacted-by-june-30-polymarket-10-2026-06-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}