{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071806",
  "record_slug": "iranian-regime-falls-before-2027-polymarket-9-2026-07-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-18T01:01:30.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iranian regime survival anchors against fall-before-2027 at 9 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "Iranian regime falls before 2027: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b",
    "question_raw": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 245082.367227,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Iranian regime falling before 2027 at 9%, a low-probability tail despite ongoing nightly US strikes.",
    "Seven nights of US airstrikes on infrastructure plus Iran's continued retaliation and escalatory warnings are consistent with a stressed but surviving regime scenario.",
    "The Kalshi contract on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iranian leader by 2026 sits at just 7%, corroborating the market's view that regime change is a remote outcome.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on whether the current Iranian government ceases to hold power before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ToI Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-july-18-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US struck Iran for a seventh consecutive night while Iranian forces launched retaliatory attacks and an adviser to the supreme leader warned of an offensive and destructive new phase.",
      "publisher": "ToI Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T01:01:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-july-18-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 9% and the parallel Kalshi Pahlavi contract at 7% jointly signal the market sees escalation as containable, not regime-ending, at current probability levels."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ToI Staff: US strikes Iran for seventh night in a row; Iranian forces launch reta",
      "url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-july-18-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T01:01:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-falls-before-2027-polymarket-9-2026-07-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-falls-before-2027-polymarket-9-2026-07-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}