{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070306",
  "record_slug": "iranian-regime-falls-by-dec-31-2026-polymarket-7-2026-07-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-03T01:10:36.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iranian regime collapse by year-end pricing holds at deeply skeptical low",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7%",
  "headline": "Iranian regime falls by Dec 31 2026: Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime fall by December 31, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b",
    "question_raw": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 99444.411536,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market puts only 7% on the Iranian regime falling by December 31, 2026.",
    "Trump's claim that Iran accepted 'just about everything' suggests a negotiated outcome, not regime collapse, and the 7% reading is consistent with diplomacy, not destabilization.",
    "Companion Kalshi binary CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7 prices only 5% on Trump visiting Iran, signaling markets see talks as phone/proxy diplomacy, not a historic summit.",
    "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the definition of 'regime fall' is a key settlement edge case, a signed nuclear deal would not itself trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-just-about-everything-we-need-in-talks/3984808",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump claimed Iran has agreed to nearly all US conditions in ongoing nuclear negotiations.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-03T01:10:36.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-just-about-everything-we-need-in-talks/3984808"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket binary at 7%; the low reading is coherent with a diplomatic rather than destabilizing track in US-Iran talks."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Trump says Iran has agreed to 'just about everything we need' in talks",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-says-iran-has-agreed-to-just-about-everything-we-need-in-talks/3984808",
      "published_at": "2026-07-03T01:10:36.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-falls-by-dec-31-2026-polymarket-7-2026-07-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-falls-by-dec-31-2026-polymarket-7-2026-07-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}