{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062604",
  "record_slug": "iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-100-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iranian regime survival after US strikes near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 100%",
  "headline": "Iranian regime survives US strikes: Polymarket 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime survive any U.S. military strikes?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986",
    "question_raw": "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?",
    "current_price": 0.998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 52896.28724900001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iranian regime survival at 100% despite the US-Iran military exchange, reflecting no credible near-term collapse scenario.",
    "The tit-for-tat strike exchange, with Iran targeting US military positions in response, is consistent with escalation remaining below regime-threatening intensity.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-SM21RS13V3) puts only 3% on Iran becoming a democracy by end of 2026, reinforcing the regime-continuity consensus.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle; regime survival means the Islamic Republic government remains in power, not absence of military strikes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CGTN",
          "source_url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US struck Iran in response to an alleged Iranian attack on a commercial vessel; Iran's IRGC said it targeted US military positions in the region in response.",
      "publisher": "CGTN",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 100% pricing signals the prediction market treats this exchange as a contained military episode, not an existential threat to the regime."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CGTN: US strikes Iran over alleged attack on commercial vessel; Iran says it",
      "url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-06-27/news-1Oj6GyJY1oY/p.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T23:11:35.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-100-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-100-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}