{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061106",
  "record_slug": "iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-97-2026-06-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T01:53:43.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iranian regime survival through US strikes nears full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 97%",
  "headline": "Iranian regime survives US strikes: Polymarket 97%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime survive any U.S. military strikes?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986",
    "question_raw": "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?",
    "current_price": 0.971,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10685.813842000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 97% on the Iranian regime surviving any US military strikes.",
    "Second-day US strikes and Iranian IRGC ballistic missile retaliation are consistent with the market's near-certain pricing of regime survival, the exchange of fire implies neither side is pursuing regime-change outcomes.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices 14% on the Iranian regime falling by December 31, 2026, revealing the market treats military strikes and regime collapse as largely decoupled events.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle assessment of regime continuity; the key settlement question is what constitutes 'regime survival' if Iran undergoes leadership transition under duress."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AP",
          "source_url": "https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-strikes-multiple-targets-in-iran-in-second-day-of-renewed-fire/article71087454.ece",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US military struck multiple targets in Iran for a second consecutive night, with Iran retaliating by firing 12 ballistic missiles at a US airbase in Jordan.",
      "publisher": "AP",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T01:53:43.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-strikes-multiple-targets-in-iran-in-second-day-of-renewed-fire/article71087454.ece"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 97% on Iranian regime survival through US strikes is consistent across multiple Iran-conflict stories, with the 14% year-end regime-collapse contract confirming the market treats current strikes as contained rather than existential."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AP: U.S. military strikes ‘multiple targets’ in Iran in second day of rene",
      "url": "https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/us-military-strikes-multiple-targets-in-iran-in-second-day-of-renewed-fire/article71087454.ece",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T01:53:43.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-97-2026-06-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-97-2026-06-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}