{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110406",
  "record_slug": "israel-annexes-west-bank-by-2027-polymarket-4-2026-11-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Israel annexing West Bank before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Israel annexes West Bank by 2027: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FZLNPNYSY4",
  "target_event_slug": "will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x794fbb668b14dacd636ff47a39e2294148420577e38278e11adf14655ad6cfe0",
    "question_raw": "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.04,
    "volume_24h_usd": 30.988966,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 sits at 4%, putting long odds on formal annexation this year.",
    "Smotrich's public annexation call drew immediate UAE rebuke, but prediction markets show the rhetoric is not shifting the probability of actual annexation.",
    "UAE, which normalized ties with Israel in 2020, signaling regional cost of annexation; markets appear to price diplomatic friction as a cap on action.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; contract requires formal annexation action, not ministerial statements, to resolve yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "link.cfr.org",
          "source_url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/41421755",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for annexation of most of the West Bank, drawing a public rebuke from the UAE.",
      "publisher": "link.cfr.org",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/41421755"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 4%; market holds long odds against annexation despite public ministerial statements, treating rhetoric as distinct from policy action."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "link.cfr.org: Across the Globe",
      "url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/41421755",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-annexes-west-bank-by-2027-polymarket-4-2026-11-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-annexes-west-bank-by-2027-polymarket-4-2026-11-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}