{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061905",
  "record_slug": "israel-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-in-2026-polymarket-4-2026-06-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-19T09:25:26.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting pricing near zero amid fresh strikes",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting in 2026: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-9Z1YP279S2",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-by",
  "event_question": "Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf69532e65491a92b693f330befbcd2e1e8650c9bed42c22bfd3e04ec4e658559",
    "question_raw": "Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.037,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14802,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 4% on a direct Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting occurring in 2026.",
    "Fresh strikes and casualties on both sides June 19 are consistent with the 4% price; active combat makes near-term diplomacy implausible.",
    "The companion Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting contract (CM-EVT-Q21DF9MZS2) prices 87%, showing the market distinguishes state-level from Hezbollah-level talks.",
    "The Israel withdrawal from Lebanon contract (CM-EVT-DYN9QZ3X25) prices 0%, confirming the market sees no offramp from the current military posture."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23ymz1n9rmo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Israeli strikes killed 18 in Lebanon on June 19 and four Israeli soldiers were killed by Hezbollah, resuming active combat amid the US-Iran deal process.",
      "publisher": "bbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T09:25:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23ymz1n9rmo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the gap between 4% on Hezbollah talks and 87% on Lebanon state talks reflects the market's distinction between the two tracks."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bbc.com: Lebanon says Israeli strikes kill 18 as Israel says four soldiers kill",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23ymz1n9rmo",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T09:25:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-in-2026-polymarket-4-2026-06-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-in-2026-polymarket-4-2026-06-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}