{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060406",
  "record_slug": "israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by-june-7-polymarket-20-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7 a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 20%",
  "headline": "Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7: Polymarket 20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",
  "event_question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x42973552f8bcfc9269fba8492766f2c20a22243cbba154cf695acaff88ec96c7",
    "question_raw": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 44425.682103000014,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 20% on Israel announcing a Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7.",
    "A ceasefire renewal has been announced but Israel simultaneously declared continued operations in south Lebanon, creating ambiguity over whether the contract resolves yes.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract at 98% on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by June 7 confirms talks are priced as near-certain; the extension itself remains uncertain.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; whether Israel's conditional ceasefire qualifies as a formal extension is the key settlement question."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Press Association",
          "source_url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew a ceasefire banning Hezbollah from pilot security zones in a US-brokered deal.",
      "publisher": "Press Association",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the gap between 98% for a meeting and 20% for a ceasefire extension captures the market's doubt about durability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Press Association: Israel and Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire, with Hezbollah banned fro",
      "url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/israel-and-lebanon-agree-to-renew-ceasefire-7059979-Jun2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T06:47:34.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by-june-7-polymarket-20-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by-june-7-polymarket-20-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}