{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060408",
  "record_slug": "israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-in-2026-polymarket-20-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T13:27:25.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Lebanon ceasefire extension announcement wavers at low odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 20%",
  "headline": "Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026: Polymarket 20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",
  "event_question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x42973552f8bcfc9269fba8492766f2c20a22243cbba154cf695acaff88ec96c7",
    "question_raw": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 44425.682103000014,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-07T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 20% odds Israel formally announces a Lebanon ceasefire extension in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Hezbollah's rejection of the deal is consistent with the low probability: the plan requires Hezbollah compliance but the group holds veto power in practice.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Israeli forces entering Nabatieh by June 7 sits at 19% (CM-EVT-19YC0MGZP4), suggesting markets see continued military operations as slightly more likely than a ceasefire deal near-term.",
    "Israel-Lebanon normalization before 2027 sits at just 25% on Polymarket (CM-EVT-5TKXRL9KJ8), reflecting the same structural skepticism about durable resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "middleeasteye.net",
          "source_url": "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-plan-doubt-hezbollah-rejection",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire plan as 'shameful,' casting doubt on the US-brokered deal that Israel and the Lebanese government had agreed to.",
      "publisher": "middleeasteye.net",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T13:27:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-plan-doubt-hezbollah-rejection"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on an official Israeli ceasefire extension announcement; Hezbollah's non-state status creates ambiguity in what counts as a qualifying agreement."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "middleeasteye.net: Lebanon-Israel ceasefire plans in doubt following Hezbollah's rejectio",
      "url": "https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-plan-doubt-hezbollah-rejection",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T13:27:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-in-2026-polymarket-20-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-in-2026-polymarket-20-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}