{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100108",
  "record_slug": "israel-turkey-military-clash-by-2027-polymarket-11-volume-up-2026-10-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "Israel-Turkey military clash by 2027: Polymarket 11%, volume up 207x",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-V8TMF1B4H1",
  "target_event_slug": "israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Israel and Turkey have a military clash before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe34a08b2a8d0f9e5033dc1bc1ee153509e414196c3e8044d5e99b64b974eeea6",
    "question_raw": "Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 921.756961,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 sits at 11%, a long shot but not negligible.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 207 times day-over-day, the largest single-day volume spike in today's entire batch, signaling intense fresh attention following the Syria-Hezbollah-Turkey talks report.",
    "An 11% probability is consistent with elevated regional risk without the market treating a direct military clash as a base case.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by December 31 sits at 19%, indicating broad regional instability is priced across multiple markets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Feras Dalatey, Laila Bassam, Timour Azhari",
          "source_url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/exclusive-syrian-government-officials-and-hezbollah-held-secret-talks-turkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:03:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Syrian government officials and Hezbollah held secret talks in Turkey, raising regional tension dynamics involving Israeli security interests.",
      "publisher": "Feras Dalatey, Laila Bassam, Timour Azhari",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/exclusive-syrian-government-officials-and-hezbollah-held-secret-talks-turkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the 207x volume surge is the clearest signal in this batch that the Syria-Hezbollah-Turkey story is drawing concentrated market attention."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Feras Dalatey, Laila Bassam, Timour Azhari: Exclusive-Syrian government officials and Hezbollah held secret talks",
      "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/exclusive-syrian-government-officials-and-hezbollah-held-secret-talks-turkey",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T15:03:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-turkey-military-clash-by-2027-polymarket-11-volume-up-2026-10-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-turkey-military-clash-by-2027-polymarket-11-volume-up-2026-10-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}