{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100507",
  "record_slug": "israel-west-bank-annexation-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Israel annexing West Bank before 2027 stays near long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Israel West Bank annexation before 2027: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FZLNPNYSY4",
  "target_event_slug": "will-israel-annex-west-bank-territory-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x794fbb668b14dacd636ff47a39e2294148420577e38278e11adf14655ad6cfe0",
    "question_raw": "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.04,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027 at just 4%, keeping formal annexation a heavy long shot.",
    "The military construction in occupied Syrian territory is an escalation, but the market distinguishes this from formal annexation of the West Bank; prices are consistent with that distinction.",
    "Trading volume on this contract is up 4,424% day over day, a large surge suggesting the Syrian military line news is drawing fresh attention to broader Israeli territorial questions.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; the contract requires formal annexation of West Bank territory, a legally distinct act from military positioning in Syria."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Khaled Yacoub Oweis",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/syria-israel-golan/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:44:30+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Israel is reportedly building a military line in occupied Syrian territory, drawing alarm from Jordan, Qatar, and Damascus.",
      "publisher": "Khaled Yacoub Oweis",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/syria-israel-golan/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 4% with volume up 44.2x day over day; volume spike is the key signal, not the probability level."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Israel building military line in occupied Syrian territory, Damascus s",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/05/syria-israel-golan/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:44:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-west-bank-annexation-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-west-bank-annexation-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}