{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070105",
  "record_slug": "johnson-removed-as-speaker-kalshi-12-2026-07-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-01T10:00:02.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Johnson Speaker removal risk stays muted despite GOP revolt",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 12%",
  "headline": "Johnson removed as Speaker: Kalshi 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsothleave-26",
  "event_question": "Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker of the House?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSOTHLEAVE-26-NOV",
    "question_raw": "Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices 12% on Speaker Mike Johnson being removed from his position.",
    "The House deadlock is consistent with elevated but not decisive removal risk, markets are not treating a holiday-week revolt as a tipping-point event.",
    "A prior precedent where Kevin McCarthy was removed after a similar series of revolts provides the real-world reference that Kalshi bettors appear to be discounting.",
    "Resolves via New York Times confirmation of Johnson's removal as Speaker; the trigger is removal, not a failed procedural vote."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Chad de Guzman",
          "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/01/gop-republican-house-defense-save-america-act/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Republican leadership abruptly canceled votes and sent lawmakers home early as a GOP member revolt again paralyzed the chamber ahead of the holiday recess.",
      "publisher": "Chad de Guzman",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T10:00:02.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/01/gop-republican-house-defense-save-america-act/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 12% is treating the GOP revolt as a recurring friction pattern rather than a credible near-term speaker change."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Chad de Guzman: House Starts Recess Early After GOP Members Rebel",
      "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/01/gop-republican-house-defense-save-america-act/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T10:00:02.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/johnson-removed-as-speaker-kalshi-12-2026-07-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/johnson-removed-as-speaker-kalshi-12-2026-07-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}