{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080804",
  "record_slug": "july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-ladder-implies-0-0-0-1-2026-08-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-08T08:31:16.947Z",
  "semantic_title": "July CPI monthly change priced near flat to slightly positive",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July 2026 CPI monthly change: ladder implies 0.0%-0.1%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-12"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
  "event_question": "July 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3139.62,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder implies the July 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.0%-0.1% range: 60% above 0.0% but only 21% above 0.1%.",
    "June CPI of 333.95 was below May's 335.12, consistent with the ladder's lean toward a near-flat monthly print.",
    "Services sector strength and rising input costs (Story 4) provide upside risk, but the ladder puts only 10% probability above 0.2%.",
    "Resolves via BLS CPI release for July 2026; the survey covers urban consumer prices for all items."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "exa.ai",
          "source_url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-08",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CPI for all urban consumers was 333.95 in June, down from 335.12 in May, continuing a volatile recent trend.",
      "publisher": "exa.ai",
      "published_at": "2026-08-08T08:31:16.947Z",
      "source_url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution via ClearMarket reference layer; July BLS CPI release is the resolution trigger."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "exa.ai: U.S. Inflation, Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers: 333.95",
      "url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-08",
      "published_at": "2026-08-08T08:31:16.947Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-ladder-implies-0-0-0-1-2026-08-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-ladder-implies-0-0-0-1-2026-08-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}