{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081103",
  "record_slug": "july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-0-to-0-1-ladder-2026-08-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z",
  "semantic_title": "July CPI monthly change priced near flat to slightly negative",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July 2026 CPI monthly change seen 0.0% to +0.1%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-12"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HVKDYMRT39",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jul",
  "event_question": "July 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUL-T0.1",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3829.12,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-11T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder prices the July 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.0% to +0.1% range: 60% above 0.0%, only 17% above +0.1%.",
    "June CPI (333.95) was actually lower than May (335.12), consistent with the ladder's tilt toward a flat or marginally positive July print.",
    "A near-zero monthly CPI would reinforce the weak-jobs narrative driving the S&P record and keep Fed hike bets capped near 60%.",
    "Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any upside surprise above +0.2% is priced at only 7% probability."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "exa.ai",
          "source_url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-11",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CPI data showing stagnant consumer prices in recent months sets the stage for the July inflation report now in focus.",
      "publisher": "exa.ai",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z",
      "source_url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-11"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution; resolution source unspecified but tracks BLS CPI release; sharp drop from 60% at 0.0% to 17% at +0.1% marks the consensus ceiling."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "exa.ai: U.S. Inflation, Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers: 333.95",
      "url": "https://exa.ai/library/markets/economy/inflation?date=2026-08-11",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T08:47:04.772Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-0-to-0-1-ladder-2026-08-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-0-to-0-1-ladder-2026-08-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}