{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080405",
  "record_slug": "july-2026-jobs-added-above-70k-80k-ladder-implied-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "July payroll growth seen in the 70K-80K range by prediction markets",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July 2026 jobs added above 70K-80K: ladder-implied",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-07"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26jul",
  "event_question": "July 2026 nonfarm payroll change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in July 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.43,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1234.26,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-06T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The July payroll ladder implies a modal outcome near 70K-80K: 58% above 70K, 43% above 80K, and 95% above zero.",
    "Soft job openings data is consistent with below-consensus payroll expectations, but the market assigns near-zero chance of outright job losses.",
    "The ADP employment ladder (CM-EVT-5NXN7ZTR53) implies a similar 50K-75K range for July private payrolls, providing corroborating cross-market support.",
    "Resolves on the BLS nonfarm payrolls release; the wide spread between 70K and 80K reflects genuine uncertainty ahead of the print."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theepochtimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-job-openings-slide-below-7-4-million-in-june-6071054",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T10:30:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US job openings slid below 7.4 million in June as healthcare vacancies posted their largest drop in 11 months, with layoffs steady and voluntary quits rising.",
      "publisher": "theepochtimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-job-openings-slide-below-7-4-million-in-june-6071054"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution is the key read here; no single binary price exists for this event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theepochtimes.com: US Job Openings Slide Below 7.4 Million in June | The Epoch Times",
      "url": "https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-job-openings-slide-below-7-4-million-in-june-6071054",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-05T10:30:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-jobs-added-above-70k-80k-ladder-implied-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-2026-jobs-added-above-70k-80k-ladder-implied-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}