{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071103",
  "record_slug": "july-cpi-above-3-7-kalshi-ladder-72-2026-07-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "CPI above 3.7 percent consensus anchors on tariff shock",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July CPI above 3.7%: Kalshi ladder 72%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "CPI inflation rate (year ending July 2026)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.24,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1246.45,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-13T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 72% on CPI above 3.7% for the year ending July 2026, with probability collapsing to 24% above 3.8% and 4% above 3.9%.",
    "Fed officials divided on inflation views is consistent with a distribution clustered tightly between 3.7% and 3.8%, not at a clean consensus level.",
    "The sharp drop from 72% to 24% between 3.7% and 3.8% shows the market has a narrow modal range, not broad uncertainty.",
    "Resolves via official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the 12-month period ending in July 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer",
          "source_url": "https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed officials are divided on US inflation views even as home prices hit all-time highs, adding to the Fed's policy dilemma.",
      "publisher": "MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer",
      "published_at": "2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers 21 strikes from 2.5% to 4.5%; probability mass is tightly clustered at the 3.7-3.8% band."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "MICHELLE CHAPMAN - AP Business Writer: America In Focus: Fed officials divided on US inflation views; US home",
      "url": "https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/national_news/america-in-focus-fed-officials-divided-on-us-inflation-views-us-home-prices-hit-all/article_c409781b-cb70-5e9b-a6e5-16c769a248fa.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-cpi-above-3-7-kalshi-ladder-72-2026-07-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-cpi-above-3-7-kalshi-ladder-72-2026-07-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}