{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072601",
  "record_slug": "july-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed pause firmly priced in at 3.5 to 3.75 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "July 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2650.32,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 99% above 3.50%, only 22% above 3.75%.",
    "Consensus pricing is fully consistent with the 'hold' headline, the market had already priced out any July hike.",
    "The 22% probability above 3.75% reflects residual uncertainty about a surprise hike, not a cut, the lower tail is negligible.",
    "The Polymarket contract on the Fed raising rates at all in 2026 sits at 71%, suggesting longer-horizon hike risk remains on the table even as July is settled."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/us-federal-reserve-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-as-inflation-swirls",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at 3.5-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting amid swirling inflation pressures.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/us-federal-reserve-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-as-inflation-swirls"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolution pins the upper bound range; the July meeting outcome will settle this contract directly."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: US Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady as inflation swirls |",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/us-federal-reserve-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-as-inflation-swirls",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-26T09:55:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}