{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072701",
  "record_slug": "july-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-ladder-2026-07-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Markets put long odds on a July Fed hike",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.75-4.0%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "July 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.8,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 65% above 3.75% but only 36% above 4.0%.",
    "News reports one-in-three hike odds from futures; the ladder is consistent, centering on a hold at 3.75% with a live tail toward 4.0%.",
    "Oil retreating from $100 toward $97 is cited as the key catalyst cooling hike bets; the ladder tail above 4.0% reflects residual risk.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-P6QJP9BW02 prices only 59% on the Fed cutting rates with a dissent in July, a separate angle on meeting dynamics."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Collin Mercer  \n\nPublished: Jul 27 2026, 9:50 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321675/20260727/federal-reserve-july-meeting-oil-pullback-cuts-hike-odds-one-three-september-surges.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Oil prices pulling back toward $97 from above $100 cooled but did not eliminate July rate-hike expectations, with futures traders pricing roughly one-in-three odds of a hike.",
      "publisher": "Collin Mercer  \n\nPublished: Jul 27 2026, 9:50 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321675/20260727/federal-reserve-july-meeting-oil-pullback-cuts-hike-odds-one-three-september-surges.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution spans multiple resolution strikes; the sharp drop from 65% at 3.75% to 36% at 4.0% marks the consensus hold zone."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Collin Mercer  \n\nPublished: Jul 27 2026, 9:50 AM EDT: Federal Reserve July Meeting: Oil Pullback Cuts Hike Odds to One-in-Th",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321675/20260727/federal-reserve-july-meeting-oil-pullback-cuts-hike-odds-one-three-september-surges.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-ladder-2026-07-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-ladder-2026-07-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}