{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080304",
  "record_slug": "july-nonfarm-payrolls-kalshi-ladder-implies-90k-100k-2026-08-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-03T10:32:12.393Z",
  "semantic_title": "July jobs report odds sit near 50-50 at 90,000-100,000 range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "July nonfarm payrolls: Kalshi ladder implies ~90K-100K",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "Nonfarm payrolls added (September 2026 reference month)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 100000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies roughly 90,000-100,000 jobs added, with 51% above 90K and 49% above 100K, a near-coin-flip at that boundary.",
    "The jobs report is the key near-term catalyst; the market is straddling the 90K-100K line with no strong directional lean.",
    "The 30-40% range above 125K suggests the market is assigning limited probability to an upside surprise that would sharpen Fed hike expectations.",
    "Resolution: Bureau of Labor Statistics official nonfarm payrolls release settles each strike on this Kalshi ladder."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/teetering-us-stock-market-faces-jobs-report-big-earnings-week-4829696",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wall Street is bracing for Friday's July jobs report as a key directional signal for equities and Fed policy.",
      "publisher": "Investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T10:32:12.393Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/teetering-us-stock-market-faces-jobs-report-big-earnings-week-4829696"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows maximum uncertainty near the 90K-100K payroll boundary ahead of the report."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Investing.com: Teetering US stock market faces jobs report, big earnings week By Reut",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/teetering-us-stock-market-faces-jobs-report-big-earnings-week-4829696",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T10:32:12.393Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-nonfarm-payrolls-kalshi-ladder-implies-90k-100k-2026-08-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/july-nonfarm-payrolls-kalshi-ladder-implies-90k-100k-2026-08-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}