{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070404",
  "record_slug": "june-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-near-0-3-ladder-2026-07-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T17:14:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative 0.3 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June 2026 CPI monthly change seen near -0.3%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-14"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 578.03,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder implies June CPI monthly change near -0.3%: 82% probability above -0.3% but only 34% above -0.2%.",
    "A soft labor market print supports a benign or negative monthly CPI read; the ladder distribution is consistent with disinflation expectations.",
    "The sharp drop from 82% to 34% between the -0.3% and -0.2% strikes signals the market has strong conviction around that narrow band.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for June 2026; seasonal adjustment methodology can shift the final monthly figure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "talkmarkets.com",
          "source_url": "https://talkmarkets.com/article/june-jobs-report-miss-57000-payrolls-vs-115000-forecast-so-why-did-the-dow-hit-an-all-time-high-1783179187",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June payrolls missed badly at 57,000 versus a 115,000 forecast, yet the Dow hit an all-time high, with attention now on inflation data.",
      "publisher": "talkmarkets.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T17:14:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://talkmarkets.com/article/june-jobs-report-miss-57000-payrolls-vs-115000-forecast-so-why-did-the-dow-hit-an-all-time-high-1783179187"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The CPI ladder shows tight market conviction around a near-zero or slightly negative monthly print, complementing the weak labor market narrative."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "talkmarkets.com: June Jobs Report Miss: 57,000 Payrolls Vs. 115,000 Forecast. So Why Di",
      "url": "https://talkmarkets.com/article/june-jobs-report-miss-57000-payrolls-vs-115000-forecast-so-why-did-the-dow-hit-an-all-time-high-1783179187",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T17:14:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-near-0-3-ladder-2026-07-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-near-0-3-ladder-2026-07-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}