{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070505",
  "record_slug": "june-2026-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-ladder-69-2026-07-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Annual CPI above 3.7 percent nears a pricing cliff",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June 2026 CPI year-over-year above 3.7%: ladder 69%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-14"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "CPI year-over-year rate for June 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.23,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1083.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 69% chance CPI year-over-year exceeds 3.7% for June 2026, falling sharply to 23% above 3.8%.",
    "Weak payrolls reduce demand-pull inflation pressure; the ladder's drop between 3.7% and 3.8% reflects that uncertainty.",
    "Above 3.5% is priced at 98%, so above-target inflation is near-certain; the debate is whether it reaches 3.8% or stalls.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for June 2026; the year-over-year figure uses the prior-year base from June 2025."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "finance.biggo.com",
          "source_url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June payrolls plunged to 57,000, rapidly cooling Fed rate hike expectations and refocusing the market on the inflation outlook.",
      "publisher": "finance.biggo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The ladder shows a consensus near 3.7% annual CPI with a sharp probability cliff at 3.8%, signaling high conviction on the band but not the tail."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "finance.biggo.com: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Plunge to 57,000, Rapidly Cooling Fed Rate",
      "url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-ladder-69-2026-07-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-ladder-69-2026-07-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}