{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071505",
  "record_slug": "june-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound anchors in 3.50-3.75 percent band",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 99.26,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 92% above 3.50% but only 31% above 3.75%.",
    "The Beige Book's picture of rising activity and only marginal inflation easing is consistent with the market's central scenario of a hold near current levels.",
    "A separate ladder for a later meeting shows 86% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%, nearly identical to this one, suggesting markets see no imminent move.",
    "Producer prices fell by the largest amount since the pandemic per Story 6, which argues against rate hikes, consistent with the low probability above 3.75%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-activity-rise-inflation-may-181529000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed Beige Book showed broadly rising economic activity and employment growth with inflation easing only slightly, providing context for the next FOMC meeting in two weeks.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-activity-rise-inflation-may-181529000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; the tight clustering between the two meeting ladders signals a consensus hold scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Economic activity rising and inflation easing slightly, Fed survey sho",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/economic-activity-rise-inflation-may-181529000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}