{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073001",
  "record_slug": "june-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-07-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds seen holding at 3.75-4.0% after Q2 GDP miss",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound following June 2026 FOMC meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7.27,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound at 3.75-4.0%: 60% above 3.75% but only 2% above 4.0%, with volume up 1,551x day over day.",
    "GDP headline of 1.5% suggests a dovish lean, but the buried 3.9% domestic demand figure aligns with the market holding near the 3.75-4.0% zone rather than pricing deep cuts.",
    "Trading volume surge of over 1,550x signals this contract is drawing intense fresh attention after the GDP release and its hawkish subtext.",
    "The 30-year mortgage rate ladder prices an implied peak of 6.9-7.0% for 2026, consistent with a Fed that stays elevated well into the second half."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jerry Owens  \n\nPublished: Jul 30 2026, 9:53 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/322203/20260730/us-gdp-q2-2026-disappoints-15-hidden-39-demand-surge-hands-hawks-new-ammunition.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Q2 GDP grew at only 1.5% but a hidden 3.9% domestic demand surge is described as handing Fed hawks new ammunition for the September rate decision.",
      "publisher": "Jerry Owens  \n\nPublished: Jul 30 2026, 9:53 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/322203/20260730/us-gdp-q2-2026-disappoints-15-hidden-39-demand-surge-hands-hawks-new-ammunition.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows a sharply defined range with near-zero probability above 4.0%, reflecting a market that sees the Fed on hold but not hiking further despite the demand data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jerry Owens  \n\nPublished: Jul 30 2026, 9:53 AM EDT: US GDP Q2 2026 Disappoints at 1.5%: Hidden 3.9% Demand Surge Hands Haw",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/322203/20260730/us-gdp-q2-2026-disappoints-15-hidden-39-demand-surge-hands-hawks-new-ammunition.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-07-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-07-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}