{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062703",
  "record_slug": "june-2026-payrolls-above-125k-ladder-implied-37-2026-06-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z",
  "semantic_title": "June payrolls above 125K fractures from base-case pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June 2026 payrolls above 125K: ladder-implied 37%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 US nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T125000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 125000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 720,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 58% above 100K jobs and 37% above 125K, implying the market sees a decent but not blowout June payroll print as the base case.",
    "The jobs report is not yet released; the market is positioned ahead of the July 3 print with the bulk of probability mass between 60K and 125K.",
    "The distribution shows 95% above negative 25K, meaning the market assigns near-zero odds to an outright contraction in payrolls.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; the implied central range of 100K-125K would likely support the Fed's hold posture."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By Karee Venema   \n\n\nlast updated\n26 June 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nin  News",
          "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Kiplinger previews the June 29-July 3 economic data week, with the June jobs report (due July 3) expected to reinforce the Fed's inflation-first stance.",
      "publisher": "By Karee Venema   \n\n\nlast updated\n26 June 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nin  News",
      "published_at": "2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract on June 2026 nonfarm payrolls; pre-report positioning clusters between 60K and 125K with a sharp drop-off above that level."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By Karee Venema   \n\n\nlast updated\n26 June 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nin  News: What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (June 29-July 3)",
      "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar",
      "published_at": "2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-payrolls-above-125k-ladder-implied-37-2026-06-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-payrolls-above-125k-ladder-implied-37-2026-06-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}