{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070406",
  "record_slug": "june-cpi-monthly-change-seen-at-0-3-to-0-2-kalshi-2026-07-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T18:07:17.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative territory",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June CPI monthly change seen at -0.3% to -0.2%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26JUN-T-0.2",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 211.6,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies the June 2026 CPI monthly change in the -0.3% to -0.2% range: 80% above -0.3% but only 36% above -0.2%, with sharp dropoff above zero.",
    "Trading volume on this Kalshi ladder surged 14,950% day over day, with the weak jobs print and Bitcoin rally both drawing fresh CPI positioning.",
    "A deflationary monthly CPI print would combine with the soft labor market to reinforce the case for Fed cuts priced in the companion rate ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5).",
    "A separate Kalshi ladder for August 2026 CPI (CM-EVT-D057W6W251) implies a return to positive territory near 0.1-0.2%, suggesting the market treats June deflation as a one-month dip, not a trend."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/04/bitcoin-jumps-above-usd63-000-reversing-end-june-losses",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin rebounded above $63,000 on July 4 as weak US payrolls data boosted rate-cut hopes, lifting risk assets broadly.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T18:07:17.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/04/bitcoin-jumps-above-usd63-000-reversing-end-june-losses"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; extraordinary volume spike confirms the June jobs miss catalyzed intense fresh CPI positioning across multiple strikes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: BTC price news: Bitcoin retakes $63,000, reversing end-June losses",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/04/bitcoin-jumps-above-usd63-000-reversing-end-june-losses",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T18:07:17.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-cpi-monthly-change-seen-at-0-3-to-0-2-kalshi-2026-07-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-cpi-monthly-change-seen-at-0-3-to-0-2-kalshi-2026-07-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}