{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070408",
  "record_slug": "june-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-kalshi-74-2026-07-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T11:20:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Year-over-year CPI for June seen near 3.7-3.8% in market pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June CPI year-over-year above 3.7%: Kalshi 74%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 774.41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies June 2026 year-over-year CPI in the 3.7-3.8% range: 74% above 3.7% but only 22% above 3.8%, a sharp inflection at 3.8%.",
    "The weak June NFP print of 57,000 jobs and Bitcoin's rate-cut-driven rally are consistent with a market that expects inflation to remain elevated even as growth slows.",
    "A CPI print above 3.7% year over year would confirm the stagflationary backdrop flagged by multiple news sources this week, consistent with the low probability (9%) of an outsized Fed cut (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6).",
    "The monthly CPI ladder (CM-EVT-KJ2LGV0M57) implies June monthly CPI near -0.3% to -0.2%, meaning base effects are holding the year-over-year figure elevated even as recent monthly readings soften."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ifeanyi Egede",
          "source_url": "https://coinnews.com/news/bitcoin-200-week-sma-resistance-jobs-data-rally/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin touched $62,295 on July 5 as weak US payrolls data boosted rate-cut hopes, with the 200-week simple moving average capping the rally.",
      "publisher": "Ifeanyi Egede",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T11:20:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://coinnews.com/news/bitcoin-200-week-sma-resistance-jobs-data-rally/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the sharp drop in probability above 3.8% defines the market's ceiling for this inflation print, consistent with the broader macro picture this week."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ifeanyi Egede: Bitcoin Hits 9-Day High but 200-Week SMA Holds as Ceiling",
      "url": "https://coinnews.com/news/bitcoin-200-week-sma-resistance-jobs-data-rally/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T11:20:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-kalshi-74-2026-07-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-cpi-year-over-year-above-3-7-kalshi-74-2026-07-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}