{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062504",
  "record_slug": "june-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.75 to 4 percent after hike talk",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June Fed funds upper bound at 3.75-4%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 65% above 3.75% but only 36% above 4.0%.",
    "May PCE breaking above 4% keeps hike talk active; the distribution's sharp drop above 4.0% shows the market is skeptical of an actual move above current levels.",
    "Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari penciled in one hike this year, yet the ladder's steep cliff above 4.0% shows the market fading that posture.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) similarly prices 54% above 3.75% but only 8% above 4.0%, corroborating the range read across contracts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-may-pce-inflation-rises-4-1-keeping-fed-hike-in-play/articleshow/131997380.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-28T10:24:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US PCE inflation topped 4% for the first time in three years, keeping a potential Fed rate hike in play according to multiple reports.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-may-pce-inflation-rises-4-1-keeping-fed-hike-in-play/articleshow/131997380.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder implies the market is consistent with a hold at current levels, discounting Fed officials' hike signals."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: US inflation tops 4% for first time in three years, keeping Fed hike i",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-may-pce-inflation-rises-4-1-keeping-fed-hike-in-play/articleshow/131997380.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-28T10:24:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}