{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071701",
  "record_slug": "june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-98-6-2026-07-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds rate holds firm below 3.75 percent after June",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi 98%/6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 355.43,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound solidly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 6% above 3.75%.",
    "Headline CPI drop to 3.5% is consistent with no hike, but Warsh's 'not declaring victory' language equally supports no cut, market is squarely in hold territory.",
    "Core prices barely budged despite headline relief, reinforcing the market's sharp rejection of any move above 3.75%.",
    "Resolves via the Fed's official post-meeting rate announcement for the June 2026 FOMC meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "James Veale  \n\nPublished: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June CPI cooled to 3.5% year-over-year on cheaper gasoline, but core prices barely moved and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned against declaring victory on inflation.",
      "publisher": "James Veale  \n\nPublished: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract prices the June upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% corridor with a very sharp cliff above 3.75%, consistent with market consensus for an extended hold."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "James Veale  \n\nPublished: Jul 17 2026, 11:37 AM EDT: June Inflation Cooled to 3.5% on Cheaper Gas, but the Fed Says the Rel",
      "url": "https://www.moneytimes.com/articles/60652/20260717/june-inflation-cooled-35-cheaper-gas-fed-says-relief-may-not-last.htm",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-98-6-2026-07-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-98-6-2026-07-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}