{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061602",
  "record_slug": "june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:15.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June Fed funds upper bound pricing clusters at 3.50 to 3.75 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 95% above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%.",
    "Current Fed funds target is 4.25-4.50%; the ladder implies markets price in significant cuts by the end of this rate cycle, well below Warsh's debut level.",
    "PGIM separately argues the market-implied rate path is underpriced, suggesting the current ladder distribution may be too dovish.",
    "A companion ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows nearly identical distribution, corroborating the 3.50-3.75% implied range with high cross-market consistency."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER — AP Economics Writer",
          "source_url": "https://www.wral.com/news/ap/9a65c-all-eyes-turn-to-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-and-his-first-moves-on-interest-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting Wednesday with markets watching for rate-path signals amid elevated inflation.",
      "publisher": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER — AP Economics Writer",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wral.com/news/ap/9a65c-all-eyes-turn-to-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-and-his-first-moves-on-interest-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Two Kalshi ladders converge on the same 3.50-3.75% implied endpoint, reinforcing the distribution read without contradicting the June hold contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, AP Economics Writer: All eyes turn to Fed chair Kevin Warsh and his first moves on interest",
      "url": "https://www.wral.com/news/ap/9a65c-all-eyes-turn-to-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-and-his-first-moves-on-interest-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:03:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}